1. Isaac Newton
The South Sea Company was a publicly traded British company founded in January 1711. In 1713, it was granted a monopoly on trade with South America, which caught the attention of investors. One of them was none other than Isaac Newton, widely regarded as one of the greatest minds in human history.
Newton—who single-handedly invented calculus, laid the foundations of classical physics, and fundamentally reshaped our understanding of the universe—saw promise in the South Sea Company and invested a significant sum, convinced it was well-positioned to profit. He was right. The stock rose, he doubled his money, and he sold, walking away with a 100% return.
But then the stock kept going up. And up. And up.
Newton watched as some friends and acquaintances—some of whom had bought in later than him—made absolute bank. And so he started to experience an intensely human—and non Newtonian—phenomenon that today we would call FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out).
After months of hesitation, during which the stock surged more than 700%, Newton caved and bought back in. But he didn’t just reinvest his initial sum—he bought big.
Unfortunately for him, the South Sea Company never managed to capitalize one iota on its monopoly, and Newton had walked straight into the absolute peak of an enormous financial bubble. When it burst, the stock collapsed spectacularly—and Newton’s fortune came crashing down to Earth, much like an apple falling from a tree. Some say Newton lost most of his money; academic estimates put his losses at £20,000, which today would be roughly 20 million pounds!
Newton—the supergenius, one of the greatest minds to ever walk the Earth—losing the modern equivalent of 20 million pounds like some crazed crypto junkie riding a meme stock to the moon, r/wallstreetbets would be proud.
After the whole ordeal, Newton apparently remarked, "I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." And he never wanted to hear the words South Sea spoken in his presence ever again.
2. Magnus Carlsen
Magnus Carlsen is a living chess legend, universally considered one of the greatest players to ever play the game. A five-time World Chess Champion, he has held the number-one ranking for over a decade and achieved the highest peak rating in history. His ability to grind out wins from equal positions, his near-invincible endgame technique, and his deep positional understanding make him an unsolvable enigma for opponents.
Carlsen isn’t just strong—he is a force of nature over the board. His ability to squeeze wins from lifeless positions defies logic, his endgame technique is a masterclass in inevitability, and his deep positional understanding makes even other grandmasters feel like amateurs. Opponents often describe the experience of playing against him as suffocating, like being slowly and methodically outmaneuvered by an unstoppable force.
Other Grandmasters say Carlsen has no real weaknesses, that his play is a sublime symphony of positional control and tactical brilliance, seamlessly blending quiet maneuvering with explosive attacks. His intuition is so refined that he seems to sense the right move before even calculating it.
To play against Magnus Carlsen isn’t just a challenge—it’s an honor. Many players dream of facing him, if only to be able to say, “I lost to Magnus once.” Because against Magnus, losing isn’t failure. It’s just proof that you got to share the board with a legend.
Here he is blundering his rook in 1 move like a complete amateur:
Yes, that is exactly what it looks like—one of the greatest chess players of all time (and my personal GOAT) casually placing his rook on a square covered by his opponent’s bishop. No time scramble, no mouse slip. A blunder so glaring that even absolute beginners could catch it.
If you can’t believe it, don’t worry—neither can he.
3. Robert C. Merton and Myron Scholes
Long-Term Capital Management was the ultimate hedge fund. Founded in 1994 by a group of Wall Street elites, it brought together some of the brightest financial minds of the era. Most notably, the fund had Myron S. Scholes and Robert C. Merton—two fellas who would win Nobel Prizes in Economics while working at the hedge fund. Yes, you read that right: not one, but two Nobel Prize-winning financial theorists were actively managing this fund.
With its elite team and airtight mathematical models, the fund was printing money. In the mid-1990s, the fund delivered an astounding 40% annual return to investors—an absurd number for a hedge fund of its size. Banks, institutions, and wealthy individuals eagerly poured money into it, convinced that this was as close to a risk-free bet as finance could offer.
Even Wall Street's biggest firms—Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, Salomon Brothers—opened the floodgates. After all, why worry? The fund was run by Nobel laureates. What could possibly go wrong?
In 1998, the Russian government unexpectedly defaulted on its debt. Long-Term Capital Management was heavily exposed, and because it had leveraged its bets 25 to 1, this wasn’t just a bad trade—it was catastrophic. The mathematical models that had worked flawlessly in stable markets now failed completely.
In a matter of months, the fund lost $4.6 billion. Worse, it was so deeply intertwined with Wall Street’s biggest banks that its failure threatened to destabilize the entire financial system. Fearing a financial meltdown, the Federal Reserve stepped in, orchestrating a $3.6 billion bailout to contain the damage.
The firm was slowly liquidated, and by 2000, it was dead. Investors lost nearly everything.
4. Terrence Tao
Terence Tao is considered by many to be the greatest living mathematician—a once-in-a-generation mind whose brilliance borders on the mythical. A child prodigy, at just eight years old, he scored a 760 on the math SAT. By 20, he had earned his PhD, and by 24, he was already a full professor. His intellect is so widely revered that when he walks into a seminar, conversations pause, people hold their breath, and even the most accomplished mathematicians sit up a little straighter.
Of course, Tao also won the Fields Medal—the highest honor in mathematics, considered the equivalent of a Nobel Prize. His ideas are so profound and his calculations so intricate that I know of professional mathematicians who won’t even attempt to read his research. Not because they don’t want to, but because fully understanding it would take months of dedicated effort.
In math departments around the world, he is spoken about with the kind of reverence usually reserved for long-dead geniuses, as if he’s some kind of demigod who just happens to still be taking conference calls. His work spans a vast range of mathematical fields, but his specialty is proving deep, seemingly impossible things about prime numbers.
On November 12, 2014, in Tao’s one and only appearance on national television—the singular moment when millions of people were introduced to him for the first time—he confidently declared to the world that 27 was a prime number.
Yes, really. He misspoke while giving examples of prime numbers and didn’t catch himself—in what was probably one of the worst possible moments to do so. At least he made the rest of us feel a bit less stupid when compared to him.
Unfortunately, the video has been removed from YouTube, but for those with access to certain streaming services, you can still witness this moment on The Colbert Report, Season 11, Episode 23.
5. Implications
5.1 Genius Is Misunderstood
People tend to think of geniuses as these near omniscient, infallible beings, effortlessly solving all problems posed in front of them without ever making a inaccuracy. But reality doesn’t work like that. This is another one of those Hollywood misconceptions that me and my pal Michael Huemer like to talk about.
Pop culture loves the myth of the all-knowing genius, the hyper-competent Sherlock Holmes type who instantly deduces the killer’s identity from a stray cigarette ash and a vaguely Hungarian accent. In reality, geniuses aren’t like this. They can be subject to cognitive biases, irrational decisions, and the occasional spectacular brain fart just like the rest of us.
5.2 Mistakes Should Be Expected
To get gud at something you will make so many mistakes that you wouldn’t even believe it. You’ll stumble, miscalculate, misunderstand, and second-guess yourself so many times that if you ever stopped to count them, you’d probably spiral into existential despair. And even when you reach a level where people from all over the world admire your skill, you’ll still occasionally make mistakes so dumb they make you question how you ever got this far in the first place.
Unfortunately, the idea that geniuses never make mistakes seems widespread. I’ve met people, both in academia and outside of it, who are terrified of admitting to even the smallest error. Some would rather avoid discussing their work entirely than risk exposing a flaw. Others will only speak in vague generalities—or worse, resort to outright bullshitting—dodging any opportunity for their ideas to be scrutinized, as if admitting to a mistake would somehow strip them of all legitimacy.
This mindset has always surprised me because, to me, mistakes are the norm. When me (not a genius) and my supervisor work together, we make mistakes constantly. We’ll spend three hours deep in calculations, thinking we’re onto something groundbreaking, only to realize that the entire premise we started from was wrong all along. And that’s not even counting the dumb questions and misplaced doubts I bring up along the way.
5.3 Geniuses and Experts Are Still Geniuses and Experts
An erroneous inference to avoid at this point is the idea that because geniuses make dumb mistakes sometimes, they aren’t still operating on a level eons beyond the rest of us. A particularly bad take that sometimes emerges is the belief that because experts have made big mistakes in the past, we shouldn’t listen to them.
The people mentioned in this article don’t just outclass the rest of humanity in their respective fields—they tower over us, and I’m being euphemistic. Most people are but ants compared to them. (Unless, of course, you’re a future Nobel Prize winner, in which case—hello, and please carry on.)
Yes, geniuses make huge mistakes. But the sometimes-overlooked inverse of that statement is just as important: people who make huge mistakes can still be geniuses. An important thing to recognize is that experts will make fewer mistakes on average than non-experts in their fields—not because they are infallible, but because they have spent decades refining their understanding, eliminating misconceptions, and learning from their errors.
We shouldn’t fall into the trap of thinking that just because experts sometimes fail, we would do better in their place. If you have any doubts about this, try proving the Green-Tao Theorem from scratch and report back.
5.4 Accepting Mistakes: the Mark of Genius?
Because mistakes are inevitable, getting discouraged after a few setbacks will only make it harder to improve at anything. This suggests that a crucial factor in genius isn’t just raw intelligence or talent—but also the ability to acknowledge mistakes and move on.
You need both: the acknowledgment to learn from the mistake and avoid repeating it, but also the ability to move on quickly so you don’t get stuck dwelling on failure instead of improving.
You can see this idea in action through Magnus Carlsen’s reaction to his enormous blunder. First, there’s a look of utter disgust as he realizes what he’s done—an unmistakable moment of recognition. But then, almost immediately, a smile and even…a laugh.
Could this be one of the hidden secrets to genius? The ability to take mistakes seriously but not personally.
I can’t tell you how much more I love Carlsen and Tao after reading this. What do you know—genuine intellectual giants are also human.
My favorite facial expression is the sheepish grin. I think it’s the most important one to master and to me there is no better unspoken indicator of intellectual honesty. Many people literally cannot manage it. With these people you see anger, outrage, fear or panic.
If you don’t often find yourself making mistakes and admitting as much, chances are your pride is standing between you and your potential. Everyone knows this but many otherwise savvy people still struggle to do anything about it.
I would say these are minor mistakes of otherwise genius people. But I think the danger would be to expect genius people to do these kind of mistakes now all the time. Like just because some of them did sometimes very big mistakes or not even big mistakes, mistakes probably under time constraint, mistakes out of a lack of knowledge. For example, perhaps Newton just didn't have any knowledge of a previous bubble in the stock market or in the share market rather. So I think this kind of text might include the danger of overcorrecting one's view about geniuses. The point of it is that these kind of things almost never happen to them. Not that they do that kind of thing all the time.